The 2024 presidential election is just over a year away. And with Donald Trump leading a crowded field of potential Republican candidates, and President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee, a repeat showdown of the 2020 election between Trump and Biden appears increasingly likely next November.
But no matter who he faces, as the incumbent candidate, Biden’s job approval rating could prove to be a decisive factor in the outcome of the election – and public opinion of the president has been largely negative in recent years. According to a Gallup survey, only 41% of American adults approve of the job Biden is doing as president, only slightly higher than his lowest rating of 37% recorded in April 2023, and well below his all-time high of 57% from early 2021. (Here is a look at the most disliked world leaders.)
Public opinion regarding the Biden administration is not uniform across the country, however, and in some states, the president is viewed far more favorably than in others.
Using survey data from Morning Consult, a public opinion research company, 24/7 Wall St. determined Biden’s popularity in each state. States were ranked by the share of surveyed voters who approve of Biden. All polling data was collected among registered voters in the first quarter of 2023.
Depending on the state, Biden’s approval rating ranges from as low as 25% up to 54%. Perhaps not surprisingly, the states that went to Biden in the 2020 presidential election are also those where his popularity is highest. Of the 25 states where Biden’s approval ratings are highest, Alaska is the only one that went to Trump in the 2020 election. (Here is a look at the states where Biden’s approval rating has fallen the most.)
While historical voting patterns appear to be the strongest predictor of Biden’s popularity at the state level, the economy is top of mind for the bulk of American voters. According to a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 31% of American adults across the political spectrum chose the economy as the top issue facing the country. Nearly every other issue, including health care, immigration, and climate change, was chosen by less than 10% of those surveyed.
Economic concerns have been driven by rising inflation in recent years, but other key measures, such as the job market, are always a factor in Americans’ assessment of the economy. Notably, however, unemployment rates tend to be lower than average in many of the states where Biden’s approval rating is lowest.
Click here to see Biden’s approval rating in every state.
Click here to read our detailed methodology.
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