Tesla could surge 48% in a bull-case scenario featuring more than 1 million car deliveries by 2022, Wedbush says

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  • Tesla could soar 48% in a bull-case scenario on the company hitting 1 million vehicle deliveries by 2022, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a recent client note.
  • Ives expects strong demand from China to continue driving delivery growth for Tesla, and estimates that the China growth story for Tesla is worth at least $100 per share, the note said.
  • By the end of the decade, Tesla could approach 5 million deliveries annually if global electric vehicle demand continues at the current pact, according to Ives.
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A continued surge in Tesla’s share price is possible in Wedbush’s bull-case scenario, according to a Thursday note from analyst Daniel Ives.

Ives increased his price target on Tesla to $950 from $715, and his bull-case scenario price target to $1,250 from $1,000, representing potential upside of 12% and 48% respectively.

Ives, who reiterated his “neutral” stance on Tesla, thinks the electric vehicle manufacturer will deliver 1 million cars in 2022, in part driven by red-hot demand from Chinese consumers for not only the Model 3, but for competing cars from Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto and others, Ives said.

“We believe that the China growth story is worth at least $100 per share in a bull case to Tesla as this EV penetration is set to ramp significantly over the next 12 to 18 months, along with major battery innovations coming out of Giga 3,” Ives said.

Read more: ‘Vastly technically disconnected’: A market strategist breaks down the 3 indicators that show Tesla is overpriced – and what to look for that could signal a crash resembling Cisco’s in 2000

And if the current global demand for electric vehicles continues, Tesla could delivery 5 million cars annually by the end of the decade. The companydelivered just under 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

President-elect Joe Biden’s upcoming agenda should also be supportive of Tesla and other electric vehicle manufacturers, as Biden enacts a green energy agenda that could include tax credits for people who buy efficient cars. 

“We believe while the impact of a Biden Administration taking the reigns in January (and a Blue Senate) will have wide reaching ramifications across all sectors, in particular the focus on environmental issues and reducing the domestic carbon footprint could have a dramatic impact for EV vehicles in the near-term,” Ives said.

Ives’ bull-case scenario is based on a 50x multiple on long-term earnings power of $25, according to the note.

Shares of Tesla climbed 1.8% at intraday highs on Friday and were up 20% year-to-date through Thursday’s close.

Read more: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest runs 5 active ETFs that more than doubled in 2020. She and her analysts share their 2021 outlooks on the economy, bitcoin, and Tesla.

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